Beyond Rising Prices: What a Strong El Niño Could Mean for Food Safety

A strengthening El Niño could disrupt agricultural production and increase pressure on food prices. But changing temperature, rainfall and extreme weather can reshape food-safety risks across supply chains.

A powerful El Niño is developing

El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to intensify in late 2026. Forecasts indicate a probability that the event will become strong.

Strong El Niño events can alter weather patterns, increasing the likelihood of drought, heatwaves, heavy rainfall, flooding and marine heatwaves. WMO stresses that each El Niño is unique, with impacts shaped by its intensity, duration, timing and interaction with other climate patterns. Although climate change is not known to increase El Niño frequency or intensity, a warmer ocean and atmosphere can amplify associated heatwaves and heavy rainfall.

A recent Guardian article warned that a very strong El Niño could trigger a global food-price shock, with effects potentially lasting into 2028. Agricultural losses, transport disruption and higher input costs could spread through international supply chains.

Economic assessments have shown that strong El Niño events can raise food commodity prices, particularly for crops such as maize, rice and soybeans. However, the final impact depends on crop stocks, trade policies, energy prices, transport conditions and the resilience of food systems.

The overlooked food-safety dimension

Public discussion usually focuses on reduced harvests and rising prices. Yet climate extremes can also influence the hazards affecting food.

Temperature, humidity and rainfall are important factors in fungal growth, crop infection and mycotoxin production. Drought and heat stress can weaken crops and create favourable conditions for toxin-producing fungi. Intense rainfall and flooding can introduce contaminated water into agricultural areas and affect the microbial quality of irrigation water.

Warmer temperatures may support the survival or growth of some foodborne microorganisms. Extreme weather can disrupt refrigeration, storage and transport, creating additional risks after food leaves the farm.

Climate pressures may therefore affect food safety in several connected ways. They can change crop susceptibility to disease, compromise water quality, influence fungal and bacterial growth, extend transport times and force businesses to source ingredients from regions with different hazard profiles.

Climate-related food crises should therefore not be assessed only by asking how much food is produced and how much it costs. We must also examine whether changing production and supply-chain conditions increase contamination risks.

From monitoring to prediction

Traditional food-safety systems rely heavily on historical data, routine sampling and known contamination patterns. However, changing climatic conditions may make past patterns less reliable.

Preparing for strong El Niño events and long-term climate change requires systems that combine weather information, climate projections, agricultural data and food-safety monitoring. This can help authorities, farmers and food businesses identify where risks are likely to increase and respond earlier.

Depending on the product and region, preventive action may include targeted sampling, irrigation-water controls, closer monitoring for pathogens and mycotoxins, revised storage conditions and contingency planning for supply-chain disruption.

How AMBROSIA contributes

The AMBROSIA project is addressing the need for a more proactive and climate-aware approach to food safety.

AMBROSIA brings together expertise in climate modelling, agrifood systems, predictive microbiology, risk assessment and digital technologies. The project aims to connect climate projections with food-safety data and hazard models, supporting the prediction and monitoring of climate-related risks from farm to fork.

Among the hazards investigated are Fusarium mycotoxins in cereals and enteric pathogens such as Salmonella and Escherichia coli in fresh produce. These hazards can be influenced by temperature, humidity, rainfall and water quality.

Through climate-integrated risk assessment, predictive modelling and artificial-intelligence-supported tools, AMBROSIA aims to help farmers, food producers, authorities and stakeholders anticipate emerging threats rather than reacting only after contamination occurs.

Preparing before the shock arrives

It remains uncertain whether the developing El Niño will produce the most severe food-price scenarios. Forecasts describe probabilities, and impacts will differ across regions and commodities.

Nevertheless, the warning offers an opportunity to strengthen preparedness. Climate-driven disruptions connect agricultural production, food prices, water availability, supply-chain resilience and food safety.

By bridging climate science, food-safety expertise and digital innovation, AMBROSIA is helping to build food systems equipped to anticipate and manage the risks ahead for Europe and the world.