How Climate Change Can Reshape Food Safety Risks

AMBROSIA explores how changing climate conditions can influence hazards in cereals and fresh produce, helping Europe prepare for future food safety challenges.

A changing climate can affect the safety of food long before it reaches our plates. Temperature, rainfall and humidity help shape the conditions in which microorganisms and fungi survive and grow. As those conditions change, food safety assessment needs to account for how hazards may develop across production, storage and distribution.

Understanding these connections is central to AMBROSIA. The Horizon Europe project brings together climate science and food safety expertise to investigate how climate change could influence risks across the food chain.

Two areas of focus

AMBROSIA focuses on Fusarium mycotoxins in cereals and enteric pathogens in fresh produce. Mycotoxins are harmful substances produced by certain fungi. The project examines how environmental conditions can affect Fusarium contamination and mycotoxin production in grains, including conditions before harvest and during storage.

For fresh produce, AMBROSIA studies pathogens such as Salmonella and disease-causing E. coli. Its research considers how climate-related conditions may influence their behaviour and the resulting food safety risks. These two areas require different models, while sharing a need to connect environmental information with evidence about specific hazards.

Understanding risk in context

Climate change does not affect every food, hazard or region in the same way. The implications depend on the organism involved, the crop, local conditions and how food is handled. A change in temperature alone cannot explain every outcome.

AMBROSIA therefore considers the relationships between climate conditions, food production and the stages through which food passes. Its work covers four European biogeographical regions: Atlantic, Boreal, Continental and Mediterranean. This regional perspective helps the project examine how different conditions may shape future risks.

Preparing for changing conditions

By connecting climate projections with food safety models, AMBROSIA aims to support a more anticipatory approach to risk assessment. This includes exploring how possible adaptation measures could influence risks under different future conditions.

For food businesses and public authorities, the intended value is better evidence to inform planning and prevention. Understanding where vulnerabilities may develop can help direct attention towards the stages and conditions that matter most.

Follow AMBROSIA’s project updates to learn how its research is connecting climate change with the everyday challenge of keeping food safe.